By Adrián Pérez Solla
When we talk about heat pumps as an investment, we’re referring to the savings these systems offer in everyday life or how they increase a property’s value. Those of us who have been in the sector for several years know that it’s a booming technology, with well-established, publicly traded companies. What’s it like to invest in these companies? Is it as good an investment as installing a system in your own home? We’ll analyze this in the following article.
Nibe, the scandinavian company in the sector
If the car industry has Volvo, clothing has H&M and furniture has IKEA, the heat pump sector has NIBE. The Swedish company may be unfamiliar to the general public, but it is one of the best-known names among professionals in the heating and climate industry.
For someone who bought NIBE shares over the long term, the performance has been impressive overall. The chart shows an increase of around 1,937% since 2005, turning SEK 1 into approximately SEK 20 before dividends and other adjustments.
However, the journey has not been completely smooth. After reaching very high levels during the heat pump and electrification boom in 2021 and 2022, the share price suffered a significant correction and lost a substantial part of its value.
More recently, the picture has started to improve. In the second quarter of 2026, NIBE made significant progress after reporting solid results, supported by higher margins and strong operating cash flow across its key divisions. Looking ahead, market consensus expects continued growth in the next quarter, helped by the positive seasonality of the heating business.
Daikin, more than heat pumps
Daikin is not simply a heat pump manufacturer. It is one of the world’s largest HVAC groups, active in residential and commercial air conditioning, VRF, applied systems, heat pumps, refrigerants and air treatment. This diversification makes its stock story different from that of more specialised European heat pump companies.
For someone who bought Daikin shares at the beginning of the century, the long-term result has been remarkable: the chart shows an increase of around 1,492% since 2000. However, the journey has not been linear. The share price accelerated strongly between 2015 and 2022, supported by higher energy prices and enthusiasm for electrification, before suffering a clear correction as European heat-pump demand weakened.
The underlying business has remained resilient. For the financial year ended March 2026, Daikin reported record sales of ¥5.015 trillion, up 5.5% year on year, and operating profit of ¥415 billion, up 3.3%. Its scale and global exposure help to offset weakness in any single market.
Daikin offers exposure to the heat pump transition, but through a diversified global HVAC business rather than a pure heat pump bet.
Carrier, the North American input.
Moving to North America, Carrier Global is one of the most recognisable names in HVAC. For someone who bought its shares after it became an independent listed company in 2020, the overall performance has been positive: the chart shows an increase of around 373%. However, the stock has been volatile, particularly after its strong rise in 2021 and 2022
A key moment came in January 2024, when Carrier completed the acquisition of Viessmann Climate Solutions for approximately €12 billion. The deal gave Carrier a much stronger presence in European residential heating and heat pumps, turning the company into a more focused climate-solutions group rather than only a North American air-conditioning business.
For shareholders, the acquisition brought both opportunity and uncertainty. It expanded Carrier’s exposure to the European energy-transition market, but it also increased debt substantially: net debt reached approximately $15.6 billion in the first quarter of 2024, compared with $4.3 billion at the end of 2023. This higher leverage, together with weak European residential demand, limited investor enthusiasm and contributed to a more uneven share-price performance.
More recently, the outlook has improved. In the second quarter of 2026, Carrier reported sales of $6.4 billion, while total orders rose around 40% and commercial HVAC orders increased approximately 65%.
More cases around the industry…
These three companies are not the only publicly traded names worth considering. A broader portfolio could also include companies such as Trane Technologies, Johnson Controls, Lennox, Mitsubishi Electric, Panasonic, or other industrial players with exposure to HVAC, depending on the type of exposure sought: residential heating, commercial HVAC, controls, components, or specific geographic markets.
While installing a heat pump in your home can be a relatively safe and tangible investment, investing in the companies behind the technology is more complex. The heat pump industry remains highly dependent on regional policies, construction activity, consumer confidence and energy prices,factors clearly reflected in the performance of the three companies analysed.
Investing in the sector can offer exposure to a significant long-term technological trend. However, it also requires patience, diversification and careful timing.
